OCCUPANCY FORECAST

The most important short-term planning is forecasting the number of rooms available for sale on any future date for making pricing decisions. Obviously, a forecast is only as reliable as the information on which it is based, not just guesswork. Forecasting is a difficult skill to develop. The skill is acquire through experience mainly, effective record-keeping, and accurate counting methods.

Occupancy Forecast Data:

• Number of expected room arrivals: based on existing reservations and historical trends for new reservations and on cancellations prior to arrival date.
• Number of expected room walk-ins: (guests how arrive at a hotel without reservation) based on historical records. Percentage of Walk-ins = Number of Room Walk-Ins/Total Number of Room Arrival = (96/ 335)x100
• Number of expected room stay overs (rooms occupied on previous nights that will continue to be occupied for the night in question): based on existing reservations.
• Number of expected room no-shows: based on historical records. Percentage of No-shows = Number of Room No-Shows/Number of Room Reservations = (49/288)x100
• Number of expected room under stays (check-outs occurring before expected departure date): based on historical data. Percentage of Under stays = Number of Under stay Rooms / Number of Expected Check-Outs = [30/(290-30+47)]x100
• Number of expected room check-outs: based on existing reservations.
• Number of expected room overstays (check-outs occurring after the originally reserved departure date): based on historical records. Percentage of Overstays = Number of Overstay Rooms / Number of Expected Check-outs = [47 /(290-30+47)]x100

Forecast Formula. Once relevant occupancy statistics have been gathered, the number of rooms available for sale on any given date can be determined by the following formula (Hotel example has 130 rooms):

Total Number of Guestrooms: 130

- Number of Out-of-Order Rooms

- Number of Room Stay overs

- Number of Room Reservations

+ Number of Room Reservations x no-Show Percentage

+ Number of Room Under stays

- Number of Room Overstays

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= Number of Rooms Available for Sale

Once this figure is determined, Hotel can decide whether or not to accept more reservations but planning decisions must remain flexible because they are subject to change a cause for cancellations and modifications. Note that the above formula does not include walk-ins because the number of walk-ins a hotel can accept is determined by the number of rooms available for sale; if a hotel is full due to existing reservations, stay overs, and other factors, it cannot accept walk-ins! 

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